Elitetrack: Sport Training & Conditioning

mike:

I am working on a spreadsheet of 2007-2008 Wariner v Merritt split data.  Right now, I don’t know if he put the brakes on just yet.  It seems like he just blew his fuses from trying to accelerate or rather slow his deceleration at about 35-36s into the race.  He didn’t give up in the Olympic Trials, so I cannot see him giving up on a medal which about happened.  I just think he depleted his CP stores in the turn and again from 35-36s to about 40s in the race that his body just hit the wall.  I will post it once finished, right now it’s very insightful and provides some eye opening possibilities that I think will be a bit unexpected and I only have 4 races done.

I’m looking forward to seeing it. I think if we could somehow see his 10m splits over the last 40m though you’d see a marked dropoff that appears to match the point when he appears to realize there’s no catching LaShawn and not the smoother deceleration pattern you’d expect with fatigue.

I am guessing on these but 350m at 37.9s and 390m at 43.0s

So this gets us

300m 31.8s
310m 33.0s
350m 37.9s
390m 43.0s
400m 44.7s

300-310m 1.2s (1.2s per 10m)
310-350m 4.9s (1.225s per 10m)
350-390m 5.1s (1.275s per 10m)
390-400m 1.7s (1.7s per 10m)

A definite slowing in last 50m.

preliminary split data and data from 2008 OT.  Granted it’s not the most scientific data possible, but using relay exchange zones, 200m start, 100m start you have standard points of reference to work from assuming the on screen clock is correct.  On older videos this is not the case, but on newer videos it is.

Here’s a couple of things the early data indicates

Wariner cannot beat Merritt running from behind.

Wariner cannot beat Merritt running from a slower start.

Merritt has a greater upside to his 400m potential than Wariner.

Wariner needs to come through 300m in 31.4-31.7s in order to beat Merritt.

Merritt has become better at running through 200m over the last 2 seasons.  If Merritt is splitting 300m in 31.7-31.9s he will compete with or beat Wariner on Wariner’s best days.  If he’s splitting 32.0-32.2s @ 300m he will be competitive with Wariner when both are on and beat Wariner if they are even.

Wariner’s only saving grace right now is he can split 300m faster than Merritt and still finish off a race. 

Merritt has become more consistent through 200m and running through 300m really well, while Wariner has become more inconsistent through 200m and 300m when it used be his strength.

If Wariner wants to beat Merritt he has to get his consistency back.

Great post!

It shows why Merritt always wanted the inside. If JW had been consistent, it wouldn’t have mattered but it was obvious that Merritt dictated the race when in this position.

Chad:

Thanks, I plan to do a bit more with it.  In fact, if people want to help with getting more splits and doing some double checking it would be greatly appreciated.  I will be using google docs if you are ok with it.  I will be posting it on my website (Sprenten.com) and on the elitetrack forum.

Regards,

Dan

Wariner comes back with the win today AND Merritt was on the inside! Kudos to JW! Not many battles like this one going on where either can win on any day!

I believe Wariner now has the 2 fastest 400m times of the year. I bet he’d trade those in a heart beat for what Merritt has though.

Using the IAAF’s Manual, I found a couple of other places to take splits for Wariner early in the race.  From the start to the 4x4 start is almost 23m, 22.89ish.  Also lane 7 passes the 1500m start line is just shy of the 2nd 400m Hurdle mark about 2m and the 3000m steeplechase is just before the 4th 400m Hurdle mark (150m).

From this very unscientific data.

23m-3.3s
78m-8.5s
150m-15.9s
200m-20.7s
300m-31.8s
310m-33.0s
2nd Ord Poly: 43.47s 400m.

dbandre - 07 September 2008 02:01 AM

Using the IAAF’s Manual, I found a couple of other places to take splits for Wariner early in the race.  From the start to the 4x4 start is almost 23m, 22.89ish.  Also lane 7 passes the 1500m start line is just shy of the 2nd 400m Hurdle mark about 2m and the 3000m steeplechase is just before the 4th 400m Hurdle mark (150m).

From this very unscientific data.

23m-3.3s
78m-8.5s
150m-15.9s
200m-20.7s
300m-31.8s
310m-33.0s
2nd Ord Poly: 43.47s 400m.

I don’t think that works for the 400m other than to indicate PACE, especially since you don’t have any data points in the area of the race that most impact performance (the last 100m).

Mike:

You are correct, if he carried his pace of 1.2s for 10m from 300-310 his time is 43.8s a time which still loses to Merritt.  He ends up averaging a bit above .1s per 10m slower over last 90m.

As a point of comparison, here are the IAAF splits for Wariner from 2007 World Champs:

10.75, 10.17 [20.92], 10.66 [31.58], 11.87 (20.92/22.53)