I believe in the best evidence to support an argument. However if someone has a theory then it needs to be supported by good arguments but may have to compromise on the standard of evidence because evidence of the highest standard might not exist. One can collate all the evidence into a meta-analysis which will improve the rigour of the arguments.
Sometimes we need to make an educated guess. However the standard of an educated guess is undoubtedly more believable if the person making the guess has knowledge gained from years and years and years of learning. This learning should be both education and experience. You can’t really have one without the other. Having both in abundance is rare.
Evidence or otherwise an educated guess is best when provided by a brain with years of life experience behind it.