preliminary split data and data from 2008 OT. Granted it’s not the most scientific data possible, but using relay exchange zones, 200m start, 100m start you have standard points of reference to work from assuming the on screen clock is correct. On older videos this is not the case, but on newer videos it is.
Here’s a couple of things the early data indicates
Wariner cannot beat Merritt running from behind.
Wariner cannot beat Merritt running from a slower start.
Merritt has a greater upside to his 400m potential than Wariner.
Wariner needs to come through 300m in 31.4-31.7s in order to beat Merritt.
Merritt has become better at running through 200m over the last 2 seasons. If Merritt is splitting 300m in 31.7-31.9s he will compete with or beat Wariner on Wariner’s best days. If he’s splitting 32.0-32.2s @ 300m he will be competitive with Wariner when both are on and beat Wariner if they are even.
Wariner’s only saving grace right now is he can split 300m faster than Merritt and still finish off a race.
Merritt has become more consistent through 200m and running through 300m really well, while Wariner has become more inconsistent through 200m and 300m when it used be his strength.
If Wariner wants to beat Merritt he has to get his consistency back.