I’m shocked you guys are saying the 200m is vulnerable. In my mind, the 19.32 is nearly untouchable. It would require nearly 0.4s PR from any one of (Gay, Spearmon, X, Bolt) to get it. That alone makes it seem like a huge long shot regardless of how fast they run the 100m.
I know it is a long shot . . .
Although, given Bolt’s stride length and turnover ratio (equal to Gay), if they are on the same race rhythm, he will beat Gay by .3-.4. Gay is already faster than last year having run within .01s of his 100m PR. If anyone has ever had a legitamate shot, I would pick Bolt in an Olympic year to go after MJ’s record (which I never thought anyone would come close).